"Amidst a deepening housing crisis and with housebuilding levels already falling sharply, these numbers present a bleak picture for future housing supply"
- Stewart Baseley - HBF
Newly released data from HBF and Glenigan shows that the year to March 2024 saw the fewest new housing sites consented than during any 12-month period since the data collection commenced in 2006, even lower than the period following the global financial crisis.
HBF says the figures illustrate the challenge a new government faces to increase housing supply in the coming years “highlighting the need for ministers to work closely with the industry to fix the planning system, provide effective assistance to prospective first-time buyers and unblock the estimated 160,000 new homes still unnecessarily held up by a government quango’s nutrient neutrality rules.”
According to the report, which includes data for the beginning of 2024, the number of units achieving planning permission in the year ending Q1 2024 was 236,644, the lowest 12-month total for almost a decade - since Q3 2014. Year on year, this is a 13% drop, and 22% on the year to Q1 2022.
The number of units approved during Q1 2024 – 53,862 – is the lowest quarterly total since Q2 2015. This is a 19% drop on the previous quarter and 13% on the same period last year.
Looking at sites, the number granted permission in Q1 2024 in England – 2,472 – was the lowest quarterly figure since the report began in 2006 –a 10% drop on the previous quarter. It is around half of the number of sites that were being approved in the latter half of the 2010s when housing supply was at its peak.
At 10,406, the rolling 12-month total of new sites consented was the lowest recorded in any 12-month period in more than 18 years and a 13% fall on the 12 months to Q1 2023.
Looking regionally, some areas saw even greater drops in the number of units being approved. In London, 7,613 units were approved in Q1 2024. This is the lowest quarterly figure since 2012. Additionally, it is a 39% drop on the same period last year and a 51% drop compared to Q4 2023. The rolling 12-month total for units approved in London was the lowest since Q3 2015.
Other regions seeing significant drops included the East Midlands, which saw a 47% drop on the previous quarter and a 36% drop compared to Q1 2023; Yorkshire and the Humber which saw a 33% drop on the previous quarter; and the South East, which saw a 24% drop on Q4 2023.
The number of sites gaining planning permission dropped 25% quarter on quarter in London; 23% in both the East of England and East Midlands and 22% in Yorkshire and the Humber.
For private housing only, the number of units approved in England dropped 21% quarter on quarter and 10% year on year. Social housing saw a 12% drop quarter on quarter, and a 34% drop year on year.
Stewart Baseley, HBF executive chairman, said: “Amidst a deepening housing crisis and with housebuilding levels already falling sharply, these numbers present a bleak picture for future housing supply.
“The report also puts into stark perspective the challenges a new government faces to meet its housing ambitions with a pipeline smaller even than during 2009 and the depths of recession.
“Reversing the trend will require immediate and drastic action to remove the significant barriers to housing delivery we face. We need to see immediate action to reverse the damaging changes made in recent years to the planning system and to ensure local authorities have the capacity to deal effectively with permissions.
"We also need to see effective support put in place to help buyers purchase high quality, energy efficient new homes. For the first time in many decades, there is no effective government support in place for prospective buyers.
“It is also essential that politicians find a solution to the pointless blockade of 160,000 homes now entering its sixth year as a result of nutrient neutrality, towards which new homes make a negligible contribution.
"The next government must grasp the nettle and be bold and brave if it is going to help meet the country’s housing needs. Doing so will deliver huge social and economic benefits and the industry stands ready to deliver.”
