ONS releases November housing market data

In the 12 months to November 2013 UK house prices increased by 5.4%, down from a 5.5% increase in the 12 months to October 2013.

Related topics:  Property
Warren Lewis
14th January 2014
Property

According to the latest data released by ONS:

The year-on-year increase reflected growth of 5.6% in England, 5.4% in Wales, 2.5% in Scotland and 3.3% in Northern Ireland.

House price growth is beginning to increase strongly across parts of the UK, with prices in London increasing at more than double the UK average.

Annual house price increases in England were driven by rises in London (11.6%), the South East (4.5%) and the West Midlands (4.4%).

Excluding London and the South East, UK house prices increased by 3.1% in the 12 months to November 2013.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, average house prices increased by 0.5% between October and November 2013.

In November 2013, prices paid by first-time buyers were 6.4% higher on average than in November 2012. For owner-occupiers (existing owners), prices increased by 5.1% for the same period.

Alex Gosling, director, online estate agents Housesimple.co.uk said:

"If you take London and the South East out of the picture, house price rises have been modest across the rest of the country over the past 12 months.

However, when you consider that many parts of the country have seen flat or negative price growth since 2008, even modest price rises are encouraging. Buyers are definitely showing more confidence to purchase, but there is also a little fear as well that if they don't take the plunge now they will be left behind as a lack of supply and buyer demand drives prices higher and out of reach.

This is certainly the case in London where properties in many areas are being snapped up within hours of being marketed. For many London buyers, to secure a property they have to be prepared to pay thousands of pounds over the asking price to beat off the competition.

The overall picture for 2014 is that prices are likely to continue to rise across the UK in the early part of the year as a lack of supply and cheap mortgage finance fuels price growth.

The hope is that prices won't start to run away from us, and that growth will be steady supported by a healthier supply of new properties coming onto the market as the year progresses."

Brian Murphy, head of lending at Mortgage Advice Bureau (MAB), comments:

“The latest ONS House Price Index shows further recovery across the UK housing market, with house prices in November up 5.4% from the previous twelve months. However, this has slowed marginally from 5.5% in the twelve months to October, suggesting house prices are rising at a steady trot rather than a gallop. Consumers can be reassured that mortgage finance will be easier to access now that the market is in better shape, but there is still room for those with lower deposits.

Although recovery has now spread throughout the country, with the West Midlands showing a 4.4% increase in house prices, London and the South East remain the central points of activity with prices in the capital rising at more than double the UK average.  However, potential buyers should bear in mind that the national picture cannot be judged by London’s unique housing market, which escaped the recession relatively unscathed. Given that house prices are rising from a low starting point, overall growth is good news as it allows many current homeowners to unlock valuable equity from their home and make a second step on the property ladder.

As a growing number of lenders sign up to the government’s Help to Buy 95% mortgage scheme, it’s likely that mortgage activity will rise even further in 2014. Additional house price growth makes 95% mortgages even more of a valuable tool for the house buying pubic. However, the Bank of England’s authority to intervene to keep house price growth at a sensible level should reassure consumers concerned about inflating values and keep the market on track.”

Andy Knee, Chief Executive of LMS, comments:

“2013 has seen a ‘residential renaissance’ in the fortunes of the UK housing market, with average house prices surging forward by 5.4% in the past twelve months. However, the annual increase is down slightly from October’s 5.5% suggesting November saw a slight slowdown in the lead up to festive season. The market has clearly been propelled by the prosperous market in the capital, but it is evident that appetite for property is growing throughout the rest of the country – with notable price rises occurring in the South East and the West Midlands.

The coming twelve months will be the true test for the market, with Help to Buy picking up the mantle from the axed Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) and the introduction of more stringent lending measures which could limit borrowing levels. It is also vital that the vast chasm between the demand for property and the supply of new homes is satisfied to maintain growth and ensure the market is restored back to full health. Steps have already been taken and plans outlined, which is indeed an encouraging sign. But rhetoric must be realised, if the UK property market is to continue to prosper this year.”

David Newnes, director of LSL Property Services, owners of Your Move and Reeds Rains, comments:

“As the economy starts to spring back into shape, house prices have bounced back too over the past twelve months.  Prices have been moved upwards driven by an increased demand for property, boosting sales in the process. Confidence has been bolstered among banks and buyers alike showing strong headway has been made on the road to recovery - but it’s clear we still have some way to go and we are nowhere near getting an unsustainable house price bubble. 

For many climbing the first rung of the property ladder is no small feat, while  - despite an improvement in lending conditions – securing a mortgage can be equally challenging. Putting together the much needed deposit has however been made easier with Help to Buy offering a real helping hand, welcoming in a flurry of new first-time buyers. But with Funding for Lending seeing the chop, the spotlight will be on Help to Buy to keep the momentum going as it takes centre stage in the months ahead.

However by any measure, it seems that 2014 may well be the year where the recovery really steps up a notch. But to make sure this isn’t held back, it’s crucial that we address the lack of new home building across the country.”

Paul Smith, CEO of haart, suggests this is a positive sign for sellers:

“While London house prices maybe increasing at more than double of those in the rest of the country the fact that regions outside the capital are now playing catch-up is highly positive news.

Other surveys have shown sentiment to be at a high and yet people are hesitating about putting their homes on the market. This could be that lack of stock means lack of choice but surely now is the time to consider moving as prices outside London are moving at a rate close to 6% year-on-year.

London is another story with annual rises at 11.6%. But we believe this rate will slow in time and we do not predict a bubble developing in London because growing world demand for property here is as strong as ever and underpins the prime areas. This demand is now spreading out - now only to the London boroughs - but to most the regions which are showing a steady and orderly growth.”

Stuart Law, CEO of Assetz, comments:

“These latest statistics show that, as predicted, house price growth is picking up away from the capital as the rest of the country fights back. Well established locations in city centres and suburbs, accounting for around 85% of residential property, and where employment is high, will now see strong price growth and this is reflected in these year-on-year price growth figures of over 5% in England and Wales.
 
Risks are diminishing away from London and investors and homeowners are coming to the conclusion that the economy is now recovering. Today’s inflation figures dropping back to 2% for the first time in four years will also help boost growing confidence. Rents are not keeping up with house prices and this is good news for tenants. Likewise, investors are once again looking for growth and strong gross yields of around 7% or greater, heading to key cities like Manchester, Liverpool, Birmingham and their suburbs where there are excellent opportunities for investment. Southern investors are broadly unaware of the lucrative yields available in northern markets, at prices that have not yet reflected the price growth of the next cycle.”

Peter Rollings, CEO of Marsh & Parsons comments:

“Despite a slight monthly slowdown towards the end of 2013, UK houses prices show no signs of winding down.  House price growth has washed across every corner of the UK, and today’s figures show that in a third of regions, house prices have surpassed January 2008 levels.
 
The London property market is sailing ahead, with prices rising at more than double the pace of the nationwide average.  Continued demand for the best properties in the sought-after postcodes in Prime London will ensure that strong property price growth will rollover into 2014, and we predict house prices to rise by a further 5-7% over the course of the next 12 months. This month, we have almost 23 buyers registered for every available property, which will inevitably keep property prices high, but as more property comes onto the market, we expect this to stabilise.”

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