"Yes, we may see a momentary dip in activity in the run-up to the Budget, as buyers wait to see what’s announced, but it’s clear that the property market simply doesn’t need a helping hand"
- Marc von Grundherr - Benham and Reeves
The UK property market continues to show notable resilience and stability, prompting discussion over whether government intervention in the forthcoming Autumn Budget is necessary at all.
London lettings and estate agent Benham and Reeves analysed recent data on mortgage approvals, property transactions, house prices, and second home activity to assess the market’s performance ahead of the Budget.
The analysis found that mortgage approvals have remained consistent, even as interest rates stay higher than in recent years. In August, 64,680 mortgages were approved across the market while the Bank of England’s base rate stood at 4%.
Although this figure is below the 100,000-plus approvals seen during the pandemic’s stamp duty holiday, approvals have remained within a narrow range of 61,000 to 68,000 per month for the past 18 months, indicating strong resilience in the face of economic pressures.
This steady demand has been reflected in ongoing sales activity. According to HMRC data, 149,940 property transactions completed across England in March, ahead of the reversion of stamp duty thresholds. This was the only month since the pandemic boom in which the figure exceeded 100,000.
A sharp decline followed in April, when transactions dropped to 43,980—the lowest total since April 2020, when the housing market temporarily closed during lockdown. However, activity has since recovered steadily, reaching 87,360 completed sales in August. The five-year average stands at 86,289, showing that current levels are comfortably above long-term trends.
This consistent activity in both mortgage approvals and sales has supported ongoing house price growth. The latest UK House Price Index shows the average UK property now valued at £295,670, marking a record high and reflecting the market’s capacity to sustain gradual, stable growth despite higher borrowing costs.
Even the second home market has remained firm, despite government measures intended to slow investor activity. Provisional figures show 1,228 receipts from higher rates on additional dwelling transactions in Q1 2025. While this represents an 18% quarterly decline following last year’s Autumn Budget rise in Capital Gains Tax, it still stands as the second-highest total since Q4 2022, indicating enduring strength in this segment.
“A further attack on second homeowners, should it materialise in the upcoming Autumn Budget, could dampen this niche segment of the market,” said Marc von Grundherr, director of Benham and Reeves. “But overall, market fundamentals remain undeniably strong, with mortgage approvals, transactions and house price growth all holding firm and then some.
“Yes, we may see a momentary dip in activity in the run-up to the Budget, as buyers wait to see what’s announced, but it’s clear that the property market simply doesn’t need a helping hand. In fact, many would argue that the more measured pace of market activity we’re currently seeing is far healthier for all involved.
“In fact, as we saw with the disastrous Kwarteng-Truss mini-Budget, a poorly executed fiscal intervention can cause serious disruption to the property market. So, as long as Labour doesn’t drop the ball horrifically, the reality is that the market is in a very strong position, and that should continue post-Budget, with or without government help.”
